Equity Indices Weekly (25 Feb ’17)

US VIX continues to show signs of improvementThe VIX is showing signs of stabilisation within the November 2016 bear trend as bearish stochastics and momentum studies continue to unwind.

Strengthening in the Tension Indicator also suggests improvement, with further downside risks expected to remain limited. A break below psychological support at 10.00 cannot be ruled out, but further supports down to the 9.70 low of February 2007 should underpin downside risks.

An unexpected close below the critical contract lows at the 8.89 low of December 1993 is needed to confirm continuation of the broader bear trend from late 2008.

Expectations, however, remain for consolidation to give way to fresh gains, with a later break above the 13.28 high of 19 January looked for. A close above the 14.72 high of December 2016 is needed to improve price action and promote stability/trend change.


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