Commodities Monthly (Mar ’16)

Investors are extending the Oil ETF USO bounce from the USD7.67 low of February, as oversold momentum studies unwind and the bearish Tension Indicator flattens, with the USD9.70, (23.6%) retracement of the October-February fall now reached.

A break is looked for, as sentiment slowly improves, with focus to then turn to the psychological barrier at USD10.00. A further close above here will help to both improvement investor sentiment and stabilise price action, with subsequent gains to then target the USD11.00, (38.2%) retracement.

Any immediate pullbacks are likely to prove limited, as investors adopt a buy-into-weakness strategy, with critical support at USD7.67 not seen reached. If broken, not seen, the dominant bear trend will gain fresh traction, with the USD7.00, (100%) projection of the May-August fall to then attract.

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